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​Italian Banks: Fixing Of The Tail Risks In The Short-Term


by Giovanni Razzoli, EQUITA SIM Equity Analyst


Italian Banks are focused on fixing of the tail risks in the short-term. Executive summary

  1. The findings of regulators (EBA and ECB) on Covid-19 as overly pessimistic scenarios in terms of dilution of CET1 (-233 to -380 bps)

  2. In a relatively conservative scenario, EQUITA estimates a negative impact due to the Covid-19 of -85bps in the base case rising to -164bps in the worst case

  3. Based on EQUITA estimates, Italian banks are sitting on €208bn of high-risk loans (ie 15% of the loan book) which are likely to suffer significant negative impacts because of the Covid-19

  4. Equita estimates that 17% of high-risk loans (€36bn) may be impacted by the Covid-19, with a negative impact on the CET1 of 80 bps (from 13.2% to 12.4%), with NPE ratio increasing from 6.8% to 8.5%

  5. The price action on banks since mid-February (-40%) is still incorporating a prudent scenario – despite the recent revamp of M&A speculations following ISP offer on UBI – with around 40% of high-risk loans being impacted by the Covid-19

  6. Consolidation in Europe has accelerated and it will accelerate further, but in the past translated into negative returns

  7. ECB approach looks more lenient on M&A, allowing to leverage on the SREP buffers

  8. Positive SREP buffers are a key element in M&A transactions to pay for restructuring costs

  9. Given current sector and company-specific conditions, an exit strategy of the MEF (Ministry of Economy and Finances) from BMPS represents a suboptimal exercise in the short-term.

Download the full report by Giovanni Razzoli, EQUITA SIM Equity Analyst in Milan.

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